Regardless of who voters are supporting, a slim majority believe former Vice President Joe Biden will actually win the 2020 presidential election. A Political IQ poll found Forty-four percent (44%) of Likely Voters nationwide believe former Vice President Joe Biden will win, while 43% believe President Trump will be re-elected.
The poll, conducted by Scott Rasmussen, found supporters of each candidate confident in their own selection. Eighty-seven percent (87%) of Trump voters believe he will win, while Eighty percent (80%) of Biden supporters believe their candidate will come out on top.
Those numbers reflected little change from the summer when 91% of Trump supporters expected victory along with 80% of Biden supporters.
Polling averages show Biden with a lead nationally, as well as in battleground states. The high expectations among Trump supporters can be attributed to several factors. For one, they believe that the polls are simply wrong (or even fake). That’s a key takeaway for many from 2016. However, in hindsight, the polls weren’t as bad then as many imagined.
Another reason for confidence among Trump supporters is maybe how close the polls are in battleground states currently. Political IQ polls conducted by Scott Rasmussen have shown the president trailing narrowly in Florida and North Carolina. However, in both cases, the Strong Republican turnout model shows the president ahead. In Pennsylvania, the president pulls to within two points with a Strong Republican turnout. That’s close enough to be competitive. However, President Trump would likely have to win all three to be re-elected.
The survey of 1,240 Likely Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from October 8-10, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 198 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. The Likely Voter sample was derived from a larger sample of Registered Voters using screening questions and other factors. Certain quotas were applied to the larger sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.
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