In a state dominated by President Trump in 2016, the race this year appears to be close. The latest PolitialIQ poll shows 50% of Likely Montana Voters in favor of President Trump, with 46% supporting former Vice President Joe Biden. The poll, conducted by Scott Rasmussen, shows the President’s lead to be just outside the margin of error of 3.5%. In fact, with a strong Democratic turnout, the race could become a toss-up.
Voter turnout will be an important factor in determining the next President of the United States. As such, all PoliticalIQ.com polls are released with three separate turnout models—a baseline projection, a Strong Republican Turnout Model, and a Strong Democratic Turnout Model. This approach shows how heavy turnout for one candidate could affect results.
In the case of a Strong Republican Turnout, Trump broadens his lead to 8%. But in the case of a Strong Democratic Turnout, Biden pulls even with Trump 48% to 48%.
PoliticalIQ.com will have more from the Montana survey later this weekend, including a bit of a surprise in the race for Montana’s lone Congressional seat. In 2016, Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Montana by nearly 20%. Montana has 3 Electoral Votes.
The survey of 800 Likely Montana Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from October 15-18, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were randomly selected from a list of Registered Voters and contacted via text or through a process of Random Digital Engagement. The Likely Voter sample was derived from a larger sample of Registered Voters using screening questions and other factors. Certain quotas were applied to the larger sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the state’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.
Forty-two percent (42%) of the Likely Voters either identify as Republican or Lean Republican. Thirty-two percent (32%) either identify as a Democrat or Lean Democrat. Twenty-six percent (26%) do not identify with either major party.
The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 3.5 percentage points.