University of Texas students carry a large Texas flag as they march up Congress Avenue for the annual Texas Independence Day parade to the Texas Capitol. An official state holiday, the day celebrates Texas' declaration of independence from Mexico on March 2, 1836. (Photo by Robert Daemmrich Photography Inc/Corbis via Getty Images)

In Texas, President Trump is trying to make it 11 straight victories for Republicans in the Lone Star State.  The latest PoliticalIQ poll shows Trump with the support of 50% of Likely Texas Voters and former Vice President Biden with the support of 46%.  President Trump’s lead is just within the margin of error of 3.5%.  The poll, conducted by Scott Rasmussen, shows 2% voting for someone else and 2% not sure.  The last Democrat to win Texas was Jimmy Carter in 1976.

With more than 900,000 confirmed cases, Texas is among those states leading the nation in total coronavirus cases since the start of the pandemic. This healthcare crisis adds to the difficulty in predicting voter turnout.  As such, all polls are released with three separate turnout models—a baseline projection, a Strong Republican Turnout model, and a Strong Democratic Turnout model.

In the Strong Republican Turnout model, Trump stretches his lead to eight points over Biden 52% – 44%.  However, in the Strong Democrat Model, Biden pulls even 48%-48%. will have the latest from key states up until election day, including the latest on the Senate Race in Texas tomorrow.  In 2016, Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Texas by 9%. The State has 38 Electoral Votes.


The survey of 800 Likely Texas Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from October 27-28, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were randomly selected from a list of Registered Voters and contacted via text or through a process of Random Digital Engagement.  The Likely Voter sample was derived from a larger sample of Registered Voters using screening questions and other factors. Certain quotas were applied to the larger sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the state’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of the Likely Voters either identify as Republican or Lean Republican. Forty-four percent (44%) either identify as a Democrat or Lean Democrat. Seven percent (7%) do not identify with either major party.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 3.5 percentage points.

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