The final PoliticalIQ Battleground State poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden with a modest lead over President Trump in Florida. The poll, conducted October 28-30 by Scott Rasmussen, shows Biden winning 51% of the vote while Trump picks up 47%. Two percent (2%) have or will be voting for some other candidate.
If Biden wins Florida, there is virtually no remaining path to a re-election victory for the President.
This result reflects a slight improvement for Biden. He led by just two points in each of the previous PoliticalIQ surveys. Last week, just prior to the final presidential debate, Biden was up by a 50% to 48% margin.
However, it remains extraordinarily difficult to reliably project voter turnout in the midst of an unprecedented pandemic. As a result, all PoliticalIQ surveys this year have been released with three different turnout models. In addition to our baseline model, we show results from what would be both a relatively stronger Republican turnout and a relatively stronger Democratic turnout.
In prior surveys, the Strong Republican turnout model showed the president up a point. In this final survey, however, that is no longer the case. Even with the heavier GOP turnout, Biden leads by a point. Realistically, all three surveys suggest that if Republican turnout exceeds projections, the race will be a pure toss-up.
On the other hand, if the Democratic turnout is higher than expected, Biden enjoys a seven-point advantage.
There are very few undecided voters left because the vast majority of votes have already been cast in Florida. Among those who have already voted, our baseline turnout model estimates that Biden is leading by 11 points. That’s true even though the poll shows 42% of the early votes were cast by Republicans and just 40% by Democrats.
Biden’s advantage among this group comes partly from the fact that more Republicans have voted for Biden than the number of Democrats who have voted for Trump. Democrats who have already voted favor Biden by a 97% to 2% margin. But 11% of Republicans have voted for Biden.
Additionally, Biden has a 25-point lead among Independents who have already voted.
The President does have a significant advantage among people who plan to vote in person on Election Day (56% to 42%).
Overall, among all voters, Trump leads by 13 points among White voters and trails by 25 among Hispanics. He picks up just 7% of the Black vote in Florida. As with results from around the country, Biden earns the vote from most of those with a college degree. Trump wins the majority of those without a degree.
It’s been quite a campaign season so far, and it’s not over yet. PoliticalIQ and Scott Rasmussen will have one last take on Election 2020 tomorrow morning.
The survey of 1,200 Likely Florida Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from October 28-30, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were randomly selected from a list of Registered Voters and contacted via text or through a process of Random Digital Engagement. A total of 135 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. The Likely Voter sample was derived from a larger sample of Registered Voters using screening questions and other factors. Certain quotas were applied to the larger sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the state’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.
Forty-two percent (42%) of the Likely Voters either identify as Republican or Lean Republican. Thirty-nine percent (39%) either identify as a Democrat or Lean Democrat. Nineteen percent (19%) do not identify with either major party.
The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.
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