A Political IQ survey found that the four candidates running in the Georgia Senate run-offs are viewed favorably by between 49% and 52% of Likely Voters. That’s little changed from November when the favorables for all four were between 47% and 51%.
Republican Senator David Perdue is viewed favorably by 52% of the state’s Likely Voters. His challenger, Jon Ossoff, is viewed favorably by 50%. For Perdue, that’s a point higher than in November while Ossoff’s numbers are unchanged.
Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler earns favorable reviews from 49%, up two points from November. Her challenger, Raphael Warnock, fares a little better. Fifty-one percent (51%) have a positive view of him, up a point from November.
All data from the survey suggests a very close race, with opinion divided along partisan lines. Data released earlier shows that 48% support the efforts of President Trump and his campaign to challenge the election results in Georgia and other states. An identical 48% are opposed.
Additionally, Trump and Biden supporters appear equally likely to vote in the January 5 Senate run-off. As was the case in November, Democrats are more likely to vote early and Republicans more likely to vote in-person on Election Day.
Political IQ will release the horse race results for the run-offs on Monday. We are deliberately presenting these results last because they are the least important part of the survey yet always garner the most attention.
This is consistent with an approach advocated by Scott Rasmussen to address the deep problems plaguing the election forecasting industry. He suggested that public pollsters should focus less on the horse race and “offer more data designed to help forecasters and politicians understand America.” He added that polls “should offer a voter-centric view of the race, measuring underlying attitudes more than attempting to define likely voters. We should certainly ask about the horse race, but never forget that elections are supposed to be more about the voters than the candidates.”
The survey of 1,417 Likely Voters in Georgia was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from December 8-14, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text. They were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Additionally, 74 of the respondents were contacted via automated phone polling techniques. For purposes of this survey, Likely Voters were defined as those who say they have voted, will definitely vote, or are very likely to vote. Certain other screening questions were used as well. Quotas were applied to a larger sample of 1,696 Registered Voters which was then lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the state’s population. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2.6 percentage points.