In Arizona, a Swing State Swings to the Far Right

In Arizona, a Swing State Swings to the Far Right

This post was originally published on this siteIn the run-up to an August primary, a number of Republicans on the ballot in Arizona — like those in Ohio — have rushed to embrace Donald J. Trump and his stolen-election falsehoods.

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House Progressives’ PAC Backs a Trio of New Candidates

House Progressives’ PAC Backs a Trio of New Candidates

This post was originally published on this sitePhoto Illustration by Thomas Levinson/The Daily Beast With the 2022 primary season heading into full swing, the Congressional Progressive Caucus’ campaign arm is throwing its weight behind a trio of new candidates—and putting its coffers to use. The CPC PAC is endorsing small-business-owner...

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6 political pros and cons of the abortion decision for the midterms

6 political pros and cons of the abortion decision for the midterms

Abortion just became a top electoral issue, thanks to a leaked draft opinion in which Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito, purporting to speak for a majority of the court, lustily tears down Roe v. Wade, ending 49 years of constitutionally protected abortion rights. 
The court’s decision isn’t yet final, but the writing on the wall “threatens to upend the 2022 midterm elections and turn the campaign into a massive mobilizing effort over the issues of abortion, individual rights and the contrasting philosophies of the two major political parties,” The Washington Post reports. Here are some ways the apparent end of Roe could help, or hurt, each party.
PRO: FOR DEMOCRATS, THEY FINALLY HAVE SOMETHING TO SHOUT ABOUT
Well, “Democrats finally have something they have lacked in this perilous midterm election year: a compelling message,” Karen Tumulty writes in The Washington Post. Instead of voters focusing only “on their own anger and frustration over rising prices” and other irritants, now “2022 will also be a referendum on the GOP agenda,” and Democrats can make a solid case that “Republicans, if they get the chance, will take the country backward” on a fundamental right that’s “been a given throughout the lifetime of the approximately two-thirds of the population.”
“If you support abortion rights, you’re probably already voting Democratic,” but killing Roe could “increase Democratic enthusiasm to turn out in a year when Republicans might otherwise have an enthusiasm advantage,” Nathaniel Rakich says at FiveThirtyEight. A poll from January shows that 35 percent of Americans, including 51 percent of Democrats, would be “angry” if Roe is overturned, “and, to put it simply, angry people vote.”
CON: THE RULING WON’T IMMEDIATELY AFFECT BLUE STATE DEMOCRATS
“It is entirely possible that reversing Roe will galvanize Democrats in November (assuming the Alito opinion holds), but I’m skeptical,” conservative commentator David French argues. “Abortion is much, much less common than it used to be and the issue is downstream from most people’s lives.” 
And because overturning Roe would kick the issue down to state governments, “nothing at all will change in the states where most Democratic and pro-choice women live and vote,” Damon Linker argues in The Week. “The decision may have an effect on a handful of close races,” especially in purple states, but “I suspect the result will be an initial expression of outrage followed by a lot of shoulder-shrugging.”
PRO: FOR REPUBLICANS, SUCCESS WILL BE ITS OWN REWARD
On the other hand, “reversing Roe can galvanize Republicans,” French points out. “For the first time since 1973, their votes on state regulations on abortion will really matter. Also, members of Congress can cast immediately impactful votes.”
“A strong defense of life is a vote winner,” argues Kristi Hamrick, chief media and policy strategist for the antiabortion group Students for Life. “It energizes people.” And since “Republicans have full control of the government in 22 states,” versus 14 for Democrats, FiveThirtyEight’s Geoffrey Skelley notes, “Republicans are also in a better position to push laws that ban abortions — if they haven’t already.”
CON: MOST AMERICANS AREN’T ON THE GOP’S SIDE HERE
“It is difficult to describe what an achievement the overturning of Roe v. Wade would be for the conservative movement,” but it wouldn’t be “politically convenient in the short term for the Republican Party,” Jim Newell writes at Slate. “Overturning Roe is not — and has not been — popular among the American people,” which is probably why leading Republicans are trying “to divert attention to the scandalous leak” of Alito’s opinion “and away from the fact that a majority of the Supreme Court aims to take away a popular right from the American people.” 
“Democrats need energy right now more than Republicans do,” GOP pollster Neil Newhouse tells the Post. “You’ve got to think potentially this might weigh a little bit more on the scale for Democrats, but it will energize Republicans as well.”
PRO: FOR VOTERS, THE CHOICE IS NOW CLEAR AND ACTIONABLE
After decades of conservative activists and lawmakers playing cat and mouse with the Supreme Court to enact the strictest abortion bans possible — see Texas — voters will soon get a real say in abortion policy. “I think this issue has been talked about, has been used in previous elections, as an abstract contrast,” a White House official tells the Post. “For 50 years we have not had it as a legitimate actual contrast.” Now we will.
“Americans on the whole are deeply conflicted about abortion,” but “the activists on each side of the issue are not,” and these “purists are driving both parties away from the muddled center of public opinion,” Linker argues at The Week. “But that 49-year status quo looks like it’s about to come to an end, inaugurating a new era of political contestation, and possible compromise and conciliation, around abortion.”
CON: VOTERS HATE THINKING ABOUT ABORTION
“There’s a myth that Americans are personally conflicted about abortion, but that’s not really true,” Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux writes at FiveThirtyEight. “The vast majority of Americans think abortion should be legal in at least some circumstances,” but “public opinion on abortion sometimes looks muddy because people don’t like talking and thinking about abortion, and because they especially don’t like to deal with it as a political issue.”
Unfortunately for voters, if Alito’s leaked opinion becomes law, “Tuesday will have been the first day of the new politics of the rest of our lives,” where “the legality of abortion will become a central, hot issue of state and federal legislatures indefinitely,” Slate’s Newell sighs. “Today, the focus is on midterm politics. If, or when, this opinion comes down, the focus will turn to forever.”

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Post Politics Now: A drive by Democrats to address economic anxieties

Post Politics Now: A drive by Democrats to address economic anxieties

This post was originally published on this siteCongressional Democrats are unveiling mesaures aimed at lowering gas prices while President Biden plans to highlight robust growth in small businesses during his tenure.

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Joe Manchin’s approval rating is up 16 points since Biden became president

Joe Manchin’s approval rating is up 16 points since Biden became president

Democrats can rage all they want — Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) seemingly isn’t going anywhere.
According to a new Morning Consult poll, Manchin’s job approval rating among West Virginia’s registered voters has jumped 16 percent since President Biden took office, by far the largest increase of any senator.
In the past year, his approval rating among Republicans rose from 35 percent to 69 percent, more than enough to offset his decreased approval rating among Democrats, which fell from 63 percent to 44 percent. West Virginia’s Register-Herald reported last year that there are about 4,300 more registered Republicans than registered Democrats in West Virginia.
These partisan shifts likely result from Manchin’s high-profile votes against Biden’s Build Back Better bill and voting rights legislation, in which the centrist Democrat joined with Senate Republicans to kill two major pillars of the administration’s legislative agenda.
Writing for The Week, David Faris argued on Thursday that “Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and his allies should make life so unbearable for Manchin and [Arizona Sen. Krysten] Sinema … that they leave the party sometime before the 2022 midterms if one last push for even a microscopic version of the Build Back Better social investment package fails because of them.” Faris, however, admitted that although Democrats could likely unseat Sinema, they have little chance of primarying Manchin or of defeating him in a general election if he joins the Republican Party. Former President Donald Trump won West Virginia by nearly 40 points in 2020.
The Morning Consult polls surveyed at least 2,057 registered West Virginia voters in the first quarters of 2021 and 2022 with an error margin of two percent.

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Five big questions as Democrats seek to revive Biden’s stalled agenda

Five big questions as Democrats seek to revive Biden’s stalled agenda

This post was originally published on this siteDemocrats are seeking to rekindle major pieces of President Joe Biden’s agenda when Congress returns this week, with high stakes for the president’s legacy,

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Dem super PAC pays $3.5 million for pro-Biden ads in swing states

Dem super PAC pays $3.5 million for pro-Biden ads in swing states

Democratic super PAC American Bridge 21st Century is pouring another $3.5 million into pro-Biden ads in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada to bolster his image ahead of the 2022 midterms, Politico reported Wednesday.
In the past month, the super PAC spent $5 million on ads in the same four battleground states. Per Politico, American Bridge expects to spend more than $10 million on ads by November.
During the 2020 election cycle, the super PAC specialized in attack ads, shelling out over $50 million to unseat former President Donald Trump and over $8 million targeting former Georgia Sens. Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, compared to only $40,000 on ads touting now-President Biden.
For 2022, though, it’s all hands on deck to bolster Biden, whose approval rating hit an all-time low of 33 percent last week, according to a Quinnipiac poll. Biden might not be on the ballot, but that won’t stop his unpopularity from dragging down his fellow Democrats.
In Arizona, American Bridge is airing an ad in which a retiree says that she hasn’t “always voted Democrat,” but that Biden “reflects my values” and is “doing what he can” to bring down the cost of living. “There’s more work to be done, but Joe Biden gets it,” the woman says.

In another ad, set to air in Pennsylvania, a Meadville resident and former Republican says Biden “wants progress” and is “focused on access to better jobs and lowering costs.”

According to one study, the average American household is spending an additional $327 per month due to the highest inflation in 40 years, which has emerged as a top issue among voters.

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Pushing for ‘school choice,’ US Sen. Ted Cruz splits with Gov. Greg Abbott in his endorsements for Texas House runoffs

Pushing for ‘school choice,’ US Sen. Ted Cruz splits with Gov. Greg Abbott in his endorsements for Texas House runoffs

This post was originally published on this site By Patrick Svitek, The Texas Tribune April 19, 2022 “Pushing for “school choice,” U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz splits with Gov. Greg Abbott in his endorsements for Texas House runoffs” was first published by The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan media organization that...

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