Economic Scorecard: Biggest Numbers May Not Be Best, for Now

Economic Scorecard: Biggest Numbers May Not Be Best, for Now

This post was originally published on this siteAs the Federal Reserve tries to rein in inflation without causing a recession, slower job creation and wage growth could be a plus.

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Transformed Labor Market Puts Odds of Being Laid Off at Historic Lows

Transformed Labor Market Puts Odds of Being Laid Off at Historic Lows

This post was originally published on this siteNew claims for unemployment benefits are trending at their lowest levels since 1968, underscoring few layoffs in the tightest labor market in half a century.

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Jobless claims rise after hitting lowest level since 1968

Jobless claims rise after hitting lowest level since 1968

This post was originally published on this siteNew weekly applications for jobless aid rose last week after reaching the lowest level since 1968, according to data released Thursday by the Labor Department. In the week ending April 9, seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance totaled 185,000, up 18,000 from...

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March Jobs Report Could Reveal Strong Hiring Momentum

March Jobs Report Could Reveal Strong Hiring Momentum

This post was originally published on this siteEconomists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal estimate that employers added 490,000 jobs in March—which would mark 11 straight months of gains above 400,000, the longest such stretch since 1939.

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Some wins for US labor, but big picture stays tough

Some wins for US labor, but big picture stays tough

This post was originally published on this site Lauded by President Joe Biden and bolstered by recent triumphs at Starbucks, the US labor movement has had reasons to cheer as attention focuses on upcoming unionization votes at Amazon. But those bright spots do not change an overall picture that is...

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The Great Resignation Shows What Empowered Workers Really Look Like

The Great Resignation Shows What Empowered Workers Really Look Like

This post was originally published on this site  Some politicians insist that workers are so beleaguered governments should push them into labor unions and mandate a national $15 per hour minimum wage. But then economic and cultural conditions largely fueled by reactions to COVID-19 spurred an enormous shift in the...

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The economy is strong but voters aren’t feeling it. That’s a problem for Biden

The economy is strong but voters aren’t feeling it. That’s a problem for Biden

This post was originally published on this site President Biden’s first year in the White House has been marked by record GDP growth and job gains, so why do voters keep giving him poor marks on the economy? (Image credit: Win McNamee/Getty Images)

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Was the January jobs report really <i>that </i>good?

Was the January jobs report really that good?

It appears the U.S. economy didn’t dodge the Omicron bullet after all.
The Labor Department’s jobs report, which was released Friday, showed that the U.S. economy added 467,000 jobs in January and that the unemployment rate increased only slightly to 4.0 percent.
Several outlets hailed these numbers as a pleasant and unexpected surprise after many experts predicted a downturn due to Omicron. Politico called the report “phenomenal.” The Democratic Party hailed it as evidence of “the Biden Boom.” Glassdoor senior economist Daniel Zhao wrote that the report “signals that the job market recovery is plowing forward, despite Omicron headwinds.”
But was it? According to Matt Yglesias’ Slow Boring newsletter, not really.
“One natural interpretation of these numbers is that the fears of an Omicron impact on the economy were wrong. But this is incorrect,” Yglesias wrote.
“January happens to be the month when the [Bureau of Labor Statistics] does an annual update of some of its models,” he continued. “With updated [census] data, they’re able to generate new and better estimates. The January jobs gains came entirely from these changes.”
Without the adjustment for new census data, the economy actually lost jobs between December 2021 and January 2022. Thanks to the adjustment, gains that actually took place in previous months showed up in January’s report.
“That doesn’t mean the jobs aren’t real,” Yglesias wrote. “But they are jobs we had all along. Using consistent household survey data, employment fell in January … for precisely the reason the Biden administration was worried it would fall: lots of people missed work because they were sick” with Omicron.
Axios reported Tuesday that over “1 million men surged into the job market last month … compared to just 39,000 women,” a conclusion Yglesias also disputed.
“[I]t’s not that a ton of men newly entered the labor force, a bunch of working age men who’d been around all along got counted correctly,” he tweeted.
In other words it’s not that a ton of men newly entered the labor force, a bunch of working age men who’d been around all along got counted correctly.— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) February 8, 2022

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White House braces for weak jobs report after Omicron surge coincides with data collection

White House braces for weak jobs report after Omicron surge coincides with data collection

This post was originally published on this siteWhite House officials are bracing for an unusually weak January jobs report due to Omicron cases peaking at the same time the monthly employment survey data was collected.

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Job Market Appears Healthy Despite Omicron Headwinds

Job Market Appears Healthy Despite Omicron Headwinds

This post was originally published on this siteEconomists estimate new jobless claims fell last week, signaling fewer layoffs.

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